Will Ford’s apology stop his government’s popularity slide?

In recent weeks, a growing cacophony of voices have called for Premier Doug Ford to resign. They blame him for the record high number of new COVID-19 cases in the province, the lack of ICU beds and resources to treat those who are infected, and the slow progress in vaccinating residents.

Even if Ford doesn’t resign, reports suggest that he will lose the next election, as recent polls indicate a steep decline in public support even among those who voted for the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party in the last provincial election.

While there were many factors leading up to this point, his key misstep was when he shut down a wide range of outdoor spaces and activities that many experts had deemed to be safe. Also problematic was his decision to grant broad and sweeping powers to provincial and municipal police forces to severely limit the mobility of citizens within and across provincial boundaries.

Will Doug Ford resign? Probably not. Will he lose the next election? The answer is much less certain and much more interesting.

In our recent book, we examined the effects of government apologies on public support for the governing party. Most government apologies include one or more of the following elements: an apology (e.g. I’m sorry); an acceptance of responsibility (e.g. it’s my fault); and a commitment to fix it (e.g. I will make amends). Our initial expectation was that an apology that included all three elements would have the strongest effect on garnering positive public support for the governing party.

To our surprise, however, it was the apology that committed to fixing the problem that had the strongest effect. Issuing a promise to address government wrongdoing increased the likelihood of respondents expressing satisfaction with the government by 38 percentage points relative to situations where the government did not provide any apology at all.

In response to the universal criticisms of his recent public health restrictions, the premier issued an apology, saying that “We moved too fast, and I know that some of those measures, especially around enforcement, went too far. Simply put, we got it wrong, we made a mistake.

“For that I am sorry, and I sincerely apologize.”

What is the likely effect of his apology on public support for him and his party? Of the seven possible combinations of “I’m sorry,” “it’s my fault” and “I will fix it,” the premier’s statement (I’m sorry and it’s my fault) had the weakest effect (six percentage points) in terms of generating positive public opinion toward the governing party in our study. This suggests that his apology likely will not be enough to stem the significant damage caused by the new measures he briefly introduced last week.

Of course, it’s never too late to make amends. While some commentators have criticized his government for changing its mind and flip-flopping on various policies, there is little evidence to suggest that doing so has or will hurt his party’s re-election chances in the future.

In fact, the premier may want to reframe his recent decisions to reopen playgrounds and walk back the expanded policing powers as a manifestation of his firm commitment to fix the problems he caused in the first place.

Christopher Alcantara is professor of political science at the University of Western Ontario. Jason Roy is associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University. Their latest book, “Winning and Keeping Power in Canadian Politics,” was published by University of Toronto Press in 2020.